So, I thought it was supposed to be cooler today, but no, I was wrong. When I got in the car to head to the station before 9:00 this morning, it was 83 degrees. I knew it would be hot. Yet, if you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed the sun setting a little earlier and rising a little later. Yes, the days are getting shorter, and soon enough, we'll complain about how cold it is. Yet before that comes sweater weather, so when will it arrive?

Of course, spring and fall in Missouri are nice seasons. Some of the time. I'm not talking about the first fake fall or fake spring, the one that lulls us into thinking we're finally coming out of winter or we've finally got done with the heat and humidity, only to have Mother Nature laugh at us and make us miserable with some more of the weather we don't want to deal with. Yet, just because it's fall in Missouri, it doesn't mean sweater weather.

So When Do We Get To Sweater Weather?

There are some variables to this. Some folks don't care how darn hot it is. They will wear their hoody whether it's 95 in the shade or ten below 0. That's the same crowd that lives in athletic shorts and flip-flops, regardless of how hot or cold it is.

For the rest of us, sweater weather probably coincides with the start of school, football season, or when the Halloween decorations pop up. For some, all of that can't come soon enough. Yet, even those signs of fall don't indicate when you can wear that favorite comfortable sweater or sweatshirt.

One way to determine when sweater weather will arrive is to look at the Old Farmer's Almanac and see when it predicts the first frost. According to the Almanac, a frost date is the average date of the last light freeze in the spring or the first one in the fall. In other words, at least in the fall, it's the start of sweater weather!

First Frost Dates In Missouri

The Almanac says frost is predicted when air temperatures reach 32 degrees Fahrenheit, or maybe even when they are just above freezing, but the air on the ground is a little cooler. Using NOAA information, they determined the first frost date for various locations in Missouri. Also, these are estimates based on historical data, so there's still a 30% chance that frost will occur before the predicted date.

• Columbia, October 25
• Sedalia, October 17
• Knob Noster, October 17
• Warrensburg, October 17
• Kansas City, October 29
• St. Louis, October 22
• Hannibal, October 22
• Jefferson City, October 25
• Independence, October 22
• St. Joseph, October 10
• Branson, October 30
• Springfield, October 22

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The Return of Sweater Weather

So when will we see the return of sweater weather? Based on the Almanac's first frost data, I expect it to occur in the second half of October.  If someone were to ask me off the top of my head when folks can expect sweater weather, it would be exactly around the time I'd expect it.